Market Update: Dow Outperforms as Oil's Collapse Lifts Airlines Ahead of Micron's AI Reset, June 25, 2026

Dow Leads as Lower Oil Offsets Another Tech Pullback

Wall Street split along a familiar line on Wednesday, June 24. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 182.06 points, or 0.35%, to 51,848.90, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.10% to 7,358.22 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.43% to 25,476.64. It was the Nasdaq's third straight decline as investors kept trimming high,valuation chip names, but the broader tape wasn't nearly as weak as the index moves suggest because cheaper energy gave cyclicals and transports a real lift, according to CNBC and Reuters.

That divergence matters this morning. The market's headline weakness on Wednesday masked a rotation rather than a wholesale risk,off move. By early Thursday, that rotation was already being challenged by a sharp rebound in tech sentiment after Micron and Qualcomm delivered upbeat signals on AI infrastructure demand, pushing Nasdaq futures up more than 2%, according to Reuters and TheStreet.

Oil's Slide Was the Real Cross,Asset Story

The cleanest move on Wednesday was in crude. Brent settled at $73.74 a barrel, down 4.33%, while West Texas Intermediate fell 3.92% to $70.34. CNBC noted both benchmarks touched their lowest levels since before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran earlier this year, extending the unwind in the geopolitical risk premium that had driven the inflation trade only days ago CNBC.

The backdrop is the same one markets have been trading for the past week: the U.S.,Iran framework to halt the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported on June 15 that the agreement reopened the key shipping route and sent oil tumbling, though the arrangement still depends on further negotiations and remains politically fragile Reuters. That drop in oil fed straight into equities on Wednesday, with energy shares under pressure while fuel,sensitive groups outperformed.

Airlines and Select Cyclicals Took the Baton

Airline stocks were among the clearest beneficiaries of the crude move. Reuters reported U.S. airline shares rose between 3% and 7% on Wednesday as traders recalibrated earnings expectations around lower jet,fuel costs. The S&P 500 passenger airlines index jumped as much as 5% to an all,time high and is up nearly 13% since June 12, a sharp reminder that falling oil can still overpower a soft tape in tech Reuters.

Homebuilders were another bright spot. KB Home surged after signaling better margins ahead despite a choppy housing backdrop. The company said second,quarter revenue was $1.11 billion and diluted EPS was $0.43, while also pointing to sequential improvement in housing gross margin in the current quarter, according to its earnings release KB Home. Wednesday's winners were telling: traders wanted lower,input,cost and lower,rate beneficiaries, not more energy exposure.

Micron Changes the Mood After the Bell

Before the close, Micron was still part of the problem. The stock ended Wednesday down 0.3% after a bruising selloff earlier in the week, and memory names had been at the center of the chip correction, with investors questioning whether AI,linked earnings expectations had simply run too far too fast, as CNBC reported.

Then came the reset. Micron posted record fiscal third,quarter revenue of $41.46 billion, non,GAAP EPS of $25.11, and gave an even stronger outlook for the current quarter, according to the company's release Micron. CNBC said the results followed a roughly 700% run in the stock over the past year, which explains why the market had become so twitchy into the print CNBC. Reuters reported that Micron and Qualcomm's forecasts added more than $400 billion in market value to chipmakers late Wednesday and sent Nasdaq futures sharply higher into Thursday Reuters.

Treasury Yields Ease, but the Fed Still Looks Hawkish

Bonds took their cue from crude. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday, with CNBC noting the 10,year yield dropped back below 4.5% as lower oil prices softened the near,term inflation pulse CNBC. The Treasury's published curve shows the 10,year at 4.42% and the 2,year at 4.15% for June 24, keeping the curve inverted but less aggressively so than during the immediate post,Fed repricing U.S. Treasury.

Still, traders shouldn't read one day of lower yields as a dovish turn. The June 17 Fed meeting kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, removed language implying a bias toward cuts, and showed policymakers shifting from expecting a 2026 cut to signaling the possibility of a hike instead, according to CNBC. Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting effectively told markets that inflation credibility comes first. Thursday's PCE print is the next real test of whether falling oil can buy the Fed some breathing room.

Gold, Crypto and the Broader Macro Tape

Gold also reflected the fading stress premium. Spot gold traded around $4,000 an ounce on Wednesday, with USA Today putting it at $4,002.83 and CNBC Select showing a morning spot level near $3,975, both sharply below Tuesday's levels USA Today and CNBC. That's consistent with what rates and crude were saying: less geopolitical panic, less immediate inflation fear, and a stronger dollar still capping upside in metals.

Crypto was softer but not disorderly. Bitcoin traded around $62,500 and Ethereum near $1,670 early Thursday, according to live pricing from CoinMarketCap and Forbes Advisor. That leaves both well off their 2025 highs and suggests crypto still isn't confirming the sort of all,in risk appetite that equity bulls would like to see. For now, the more important read,through is that digital assets have stabilized rather than accelerated as yields and oil fall.

What to Watch Today

• PCE inflation at 8:30 a.m. ET: The New York Fed calendar and market calendars show Thursday's key release is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, alongside personal income and spending New York Fed and TradingCharts.
• Durable goods and jobless claims: Also due Thursday morning, giving traders a cleaner read on whether growth is cooling enough to offset the Fed's hawkish bias TradingCharts.
• Micron follow,through: Watch whether cash equities validate the overnight move in futures after Micron's blowout quarter and guidance. This is the session's most actionable single,stock catalyst Micron.
• Semiconductor breadth: If Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD and memory suppliers join the rebound, the three,day Nasdaq pullback may start to look more like a reset than a trend break.
• Oil around $70 WTI: If crude stays pinned near these levels, airlines, transports and other fuel,sensitive groups could keep outperforming while energy remains a funding source for rotation Reuters.
• Treasury yields after PCE: The 10,year below 4.5% has helped ease pressure on duration,sensitive equities. A reversal higher would complicate the tech rebound fast U.S. Treasury.